10-29-2026 
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TL;DR: Robinhood posted record Q3 net revenue of $1.42 billion, driven by growth in prediction markets, options and equities, despite a 55% drop in crypto revenue to $120 million. However, net income fell 14% to $415 million, partly due to a $67 million unrealized loss on its Ventures Fund I. The shift in revenue sources was also reflected in transaction revenue, with crypto’s share shrinking to 8% while prediction markets’ share grew to 12%.
Key Takeaways:
- Robinhood revenue up despite 55% crypto plunge
- Prediction markets are Robinhood’s new Maid Marian, offsetting weakness in crypto trading
- Robinhood strikes Ripple deal to boost RLUSD stablecoin use across trading, settlements, and financing
- The road ahead: Prediction markets and new crypto products offer growth potential, but regulatory risks and softer trading volumes loom
Trading platform Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) reported record revenue in the third quarter despite crypto revenue tumbling 55%, pushing crypto’s revenue share into single-digit territory.
Robinhood released its Q3 financial report card on Tuesday, showing net revenue up 12% year-on-year to a record $1.42 billion (+8.3% from Q2) but profits tumbled 14% to $415 million. Robinhood said net income took an unrealized $67 million hit from the mark-to-market valuation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I, which includes stakes in artificial intelligence (AI) firms, including Databricks, Mercor, and OpenAI, along with fintechs Revolut and Erebor, to name just a few.
Q3’s transaction revenue total was up 19% year-on-year to $867 million, thanks to a significant boost from Rothera, the prediction market joint venture of Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group that launched this summer.
These ‘event contracts’ contributed $173 million to the Q3 revenue total, up from $156 million in Q2, with Rothera’s share of this pie at ~$100 million. (Robinhood originally partnered with Kalshi for its prediction market offering.)
Options transaction revenue was up even higher, rising 31% year-on-year to $399 million, while equities transactions jumped 41% to $121 million. But in a pattern mirroring the wider sector, it was cryptocurrency trading that provided the only negative numbers, falling 55% to $120 million.
Crypto trading has fallen year-on-year in every quarter this year, starting with Q1’s 47% fall to $134 million and persisting through Q2’s 38% decline to $100 million. The losing streak extends back to Q4 2025, in which crypto revenue fell 38% to $221 million.
And a footnote in Robinhood’s presentation indicates that $26 million of Q3’s crypto transaction revenue comes from activity on the Robinhood Chain, the Ethereum-compatible layer-2 network that didn’t launch until day 1 of Q3.
Robinhood Chain became a top-five network in its initial quarter, tallying over $80 billion in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume and $50 million in chain fees. But absent the Chain’s contributions, Robinhood’s 20% sequential rise in Q3 crypto revenue would have been a 6% sequential decline.
Crypto also posted negative growth in terms of the net deposits on the platform, falling 26% from $51 billion in Q325 to $38 billion in the most recent quarter. However, it marks sequential growth from Q2’s $26 billion, reflecting the modest recovery in token prices since their summer lows.
Crypto notional trading volume via the Robinhood app enjoyed a similar annual decline/sequential rise, with a Q3 total of $20.6 billion, up from $18.3 billion in Q2. But you have to go back two years to find another volume total lower than that.
Add in volume on the Bitstamp exchange, which Robinhood acquired in June 2025, and the overall numbers increase but the pattern remains the same. Combined Robinhood/Bitstamp volume was $49.8 billion in Q3, up from $40.4 billion in Q2, but significantly lower than the totals in the three quarters preceding Q2.
If there’s a positive here, September’s total crypto volume and average daily trading volume were the best monthly numbers for both Robinhood and Bitstamp since February.
But the negatives quickly return when looking at the number of customers placing crypto trades in Q3, which on Robinhood fell 12% sequentially and 37% year-on-year. It was worse on Bitstamp, which saw sequential declines of 16% while the year-on-year stats were down a whopping 68%.
And Bitstamp’s Q3 volume rebound was almost entirely due to institutional investors placing bigger bets. Institutional volume jumped more than one-third sequentially to $27.7 billion, while retail volume grew a more modest 7% to $1.5 billion.
Crypto’s share of Robinhood’s overall transaction revenue came to 8% in Q3, down from 21% in the same period last year. Over that same span, prediction markets’ revenue share rose from 2% to 12%, options rose five points to 28%, and equities added two points to 9%.
Prediction markets doing fine, at least until the Supreme Court weighs in
Robinhood’s prediction market activity has fallen off since the end of this summer’s FIFA World Cup, but September saw the numbers start to nudge back up thanks to a new NFL season getting underway. September’s trading volume was $5.6 billion, down from June’s $6.4 billion but better than August’s $4.7 billion.
Robinhood’s total number of event contracts traded hit a record 16.4 billion in Q3, a more than sevenfold year-on-year spike. Rothera accounted for 6.4 billion of these contracts in its first full quarter.
In September, Robinhood struck a deal with the Crypto.com exchange to add yes-or-no contracts to the Robinhood platform. These markets are provided by Crypto.com’s offshoot, OG.com, which holds a designated contract market (DCM) permit from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The deal also saw Robinhood take minority stakes in both Crypto.com and OG.com, the size of which went unspecified at the time. On Tuesday’s analyst call, CFO Shiv Verma revealed that the stakes were “an initial 1%” with “the ability to earn up to 10% ownership depending on how much we partner together in the years to come.” Verma noted that these stakes were achieved “with no cash outlay.”
Asked on the call how the company reconciles routing decisions between its various event contract venues, Verma said “Rothera will be our primary exchange, and Crypto.com/OG.com will now be our main second exchange, and we will be getting off most of our competitors. By the end of the year into early next year, you should expect the vast majority of our flow go through both of those.”
Asked how Rothera might take market share from rivals, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said “I think Rothera could become the default neutral gateway for FCMs [CFTC-registered future commission merchants) because a lot of the other prediction markets venues, they have their first-party offerings where they are trying to acquire customers while they’re offering a service to others. I think when we talk to a lot of other FCMs, they don’t like the idea and the potential conflict of their provider also operating a first-party business.”
Tenev said Robinhood has been “investing a lot in the non-sports contracts” based on his belief that Rothera “can support just a more sophisticated financial contracts and be a leader there.” Tenev said rivals were focused on “just all sports all the time,” which Tenev believes is “rapidly going to get commoditized.”
Verma told analysts that ~30% of Rothera’s Q3 action was “non-sport,” roughly twice Q2’s non-sports share. Tenev said Rothera’s “15-minute up and down markets on crypto have been looking good” as well.
In September, Robinhood launched its U.S. Midterms Hub, “a dedicated election hub that gives customers quick and intuitive access to the markets affecting them at both the state and federal level.”
It’s perhaps worth noting that the list of active ‘legal and regulatory matters’ related to prediction markets in the company’s 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stretches for three full pages.
There’s no end in sight for the fierce legal fight between prediction market operators and their CFTC allies versus state officials over the right to offer sports wagers to state residents without acquiring state gambling licenses. The issue likely won’t be fully resolved until the U.S. Supreme Court agrees to weigh in on the matter.
Robinhood, Ripple strike RLUSD stablecoin deal
In defending Robinhood’s declining crypto business, Verma noted that the Robinhood Earn stablecoin-focused product was “the main driver” of this segment with over $500 million in assets. Earn is built around the Global Dollar consortium’s USDG token, which customers can lend onchain via the decentralized finance (DeFi) lending protocol Morpho.
Tuesday saw Robinhood strike a deal with Ripple Labs to expand access to and its use of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. Robinhood and Bitstamp will now use RLUSD to settle international trades, automate treasury operations, expand trading options and offer financing through Ripple Prime. Neither company offered any hints of how much Ripple might be ‘incentivizing’ Robinhood to promote its stablecoin thusly.
Asked about the tie-up, Tenev said Robinhood and Ripple “offer complementary things. I think more integration, more products, more selection for the Robinhood ecosystem, both in the app and in the chain, is just strictly better. I think we bring complementary things to the table, with their institutional business and our more retail-oriented business.”
Looking ahead
Despite the Q3 profit decline, analysts remain bullish on Robinhood’s Q4 performance, either maintaining or even boosting their forecasts for the company’s share price going forward. Bernstein analysts flagged prediction markets, the Robinhood Chain, and the increasing U.S. regulatory acceptance of perpetual futures contracts as helping to drive future revenue growth.
On the earnings call, CFO Verma offered an early Q4 preview, saying “average daily volumes for equities, options, and cryptos are off to a good start and are about 5% lighter relative to the really strong Q3.”
Robinhood shares began the week around $94 and held up rather well through Tuesday, closing at $94.56, but after-hours trading pushed the price below $87. The shares rebounded somewhat in early Wednesday trading but closed down another 3.3% to $91.43.
FAQs:
How much revenue did Robinhood report in Q3?
A record $1.42 billion, up 12% from a year earlier and 8.3% from Q2.
Why did profits fall despite record revenue?
Net income dropped 14% to $415 million, partly due to a $67 million unrealized loss on the valuation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I.
How badly did crypto revenue decline?
It fell 55% year-on-year to $120 million, and crypto now makes up only 8% of transaction revenue, down from 21% a year ago.
What is Rothera?
Rothera is a prediction market joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, launched this summer. It contributed about $100 million of the $173 million in event contract revenue.
What are the main risks for prediction markets?
Legal battles with state officials over offering sports wagers without state gambling licenses. The issue likely won’t be settled until the U.S. Supreme Court weighs in.
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