India’s quantum leap poses national security risks: NITI Aayog

India’s NITI Aayog, the government’s central public policy think tank, has raised concerns that the rapid advancement of quantum computing presents both significant opportunities and serious challenges for national security. Recent breakthroughs are overturning earlier assumptions, making revisiting and revising current expectations essential.

In response, the agency has published a paper titled “Quantum Computing: National Security Implications & Strategic Preparedness.” The report examines the global race in quantum technology, highlights key scientific developments, and assesses their potential impact on national security. It also outlines strategic recommendations to bolster India’s readiness in this emerging field.

Quantum computing is a dual-use technology with far-reaching defense, intelligence, and cybersecurity implications. While India has taken important steps through the National Quantum Mission (NQM), a well-defined strategic framework is crucial to harness opportunities while mitigating emerging risks.

“Quantum technologies will play a defining role in securing critical infrastructure, strengthening defense capabilities, and safeguarding our digital sovereignty. However, leadership in this domain will require more than technological prowess—it demands a bold vision, strong policy frameworks, and an ecosystem that fosters cutting-edge research, talent development, and large-scale deployment,” BVR Subrahmanyam, chief executive of NITI Aayog, said in the foreword of the report.

Despite ongoing skepticism around the exact timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs), it is crucial to acknowledge the powerful momentum driving their development. The potential impact of CRQCs—especially on national security—warrants serious attention from India. Progress is accelerating in areas once seen as major technical hurdles.

A robust ecosystem and supporting supply chains are rapidly forming, fueled by growing public and private sector investments. This convergence of technological advances and ecosystem maturity indicates that fault-tolerant, cryptographically relevant quantum computers could arrive sooner than expected.

Key breakthroughs include improved qubit coherence and control, more effective error mitigation and correction, and the emergence of novel quantum algorithms. Additionally, researchers are advancing across multiple qubit platforms, broadening the path toward scalable quantum computing.

“Quantum computing is becoming real, much faster than we think—not in decades, but in years. Breakthroughs like Google’s Willow and Microsoft’s Majorana-1 prove that scalable quantum systems are on the horizon. This is not a distant future; it is unfolding now, and India must act today to stay ahead,” Debjani Ghosh, distinguished fellow at NITI Aayog and the Chief Architect of NITI Frontier Tech Hub, said in the report.

The NITI Frontier Tech Hub (NITI-FTH) has been established as a Frontier Tech Action Tank to accelerate India’s transition into a ‘Frontier Tech Nation’, NITI Aayog said in an official statement. Its key objectives include enabling India’s readiness to advance frontier technology innovation and use for accelerated economic and societal development towards Viksit Bharat (developed India vision). NITI-FTH also intends to champion India’s human-centric approach worldwide by advancing the development and adoption of emerging technologies that benefit humanity and the environment.

As part of its charter, the Hub will engage with experts across industry, academia and government to create a deeper understanding of technology trends early and their implications on India. It will also develop action plans and recommendations to drive India’s readiness.

“Quantum computing will redefine artificial intelligence, cryptography, and national security, bringing both transformative opportunities and critical risks. As quantum capabilities accelerate, they challenge existing security frameworks while unlocking powerful new defense strategies. Nations that prepare today will shape the future; those that don’t risk falling behind,” Ghosh added.

“Although some doubts still persist, the acceleration of quantum technology, especially promising million-qubits, would have a profound impact on national security,” pointed out Vinayak Godse, chief executive officer of the Data Security Council of India.

The concerns

The report shows quantum technologies are poised to transform national security strategies across various domains. From breaking modern encryption systems to enabling futuristic weaponry, countries that lead in quantum innovation will gain a significant strategic advantage. For instance, a powerful, fault-tolerant quantum computer—often called a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC)—could break widely used public-key encryption systems, threatening the foundations of internet security, online banking, and secure communications.

As a result, nations are racing to develop and deploy Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) to safeguard sensitive data. Those who succeed first can protect their digital infrastructure while others remain exposed. Among various quantum approaches, topological qubits stand out for their robustness, error resistance, and scalability, potentially accelerating the realization of CRQCs.

Moreover, quantum computing poses a direct threat to global financial security, the report stated. The ability to break encryption could destabilize markets, compromise digital transactions, and expose banking infrastructure. It also opens the door to large-scale intellectual property theft, giving rise to a new form of economic espionage that could target corporations and government institutions alike.

Countries that achieve early dominance in quantum technologies will set the pace for global technology standards and influence international regulatory frameworks. They may also impose export restrictions to prevent adversaries from accessing critical quantum technologies. The enhanced stability and scalability offered by topological qubits could further entrench the leadership of these early adopters, making their technological edge increasingly difficult to overcome. In essence, the race for quantum supremacy is not just about scientific progress—it’s about shaping the balance of global power in the decades to come.

The recommendations

The report emphasizes that India should be ready for two potential scenarios in quantum development: steady progress in improving qubits, control systems, and algorithms, or sudden breakthroughs in technologies like silicon spin or topological qubits and better error correction. As these advancements unfold, there’s a risk of being caught off guard. Falling behind could harm India’s national security, economy, and status as a technology leader.

The report recommends setting up a dedicated unit to track international quantum advancements in real-time and identify vulnerabilities in critical national infrastructure and systems.

It also suggests issuing directives to ensure industries—especially those in critical sectors—are prepared to pivot quickly in response to quantum breakthroughs.

Creating a phased transition plan that includes risk-based prioritization, accelerated proof-of-concept trials, certification mechanisms, and active information sharing on implementations is another recommendation in the report. It also suggests pursuing bilateral agreements for the rapid adoption of scalable platforms, including topological qubit systems.

Finally, the report recommends India adopt a proactive, multi-dimensional security strategy that integrates technology surveillance, adaptable research and development (R&D), and robust supply chain protections to stay ahead in the quantum era. By leveraging global partnerships alongside domestic innovation, India can ensure its national security infrastructure remains resilient amid the rapid evolution of quantum technologies, the report added.

Surge in investments

According to the report, private capital is pouring into quantum technologies, signaling growing commercial confidence and accelerating the shift from research to real-world applications. Leading companies like PsiQuantum, Rigetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Systems, Quantinuum, IQM Quantum Computers, and PASQAL have each raised over $100 million, reflecting strong investor interest.

Governments are also stepping up their investments. The U.S. has committed $5 billion to date, while China leads with $15 billion. Europe has allocated $1.2 billion, and India has pledged about $750 million. Altogether, more than 30 governments have committed over $40 billion to support quantum development, the report stated.

In 2024, the quantum sector recorded around 50 investment deals totaling $1.5 billion—twice the amount seen in the previous year. India, in particular, has significantly boosted funding for quantum startups, a trend expected to continue in 2025.

With growing private and public investment, the commercialization of quantum technologies is poised to accelerate, bringing the industry closer to widespread deployment and adoption.

The report pointed out that quantum technologies will usher in next-generation advancements in defense. Breakthroughs in materials science, powered by quantum simulations, could lead to advanced military equipment.

Quantum algorithms will optimize logistics, resource allocation, and battlefield strategies, while quantum AI will enhance autonomous drones and robotic defense systems, the report added. The scalability potential of topological qubits could make ultra-sensitive quantum sensors for precise navigation, detection of stealth assets, and high-fidelity simulation of complex physical phenomena possible—laying the groundwork for robust, autonomous weapon systems.

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