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Are we close to a bottom in BSV?

Negativity is the norm in the BSV community in 2022 and given its extreme bear market, being down in price over 55% year-to-date:

Bitcoin SV to USD Chart
Source: Coinmarketcap

Of course, the price matters to most regardless of whatever coping narratives one likes to construct, whether “only transaction volume matters” or “only use matters” or “only the court cases matter.” Where BSV community members are at on the five stages of grief is subjective but given that businesses are leaving the scalable blockchain for other chains (or starting new blockchains) indicates being present somewhere on the spectrum.

Kubler-Ross Grief Cycle
Source: Psycom

On one hand, the persistent negativity can be attributed to a greater macroeconomic bear market resulting from high inflation and rising interest rates. However, the reasons given by the BSV community on why the price remains low are unique. Reasons given often fall into one of the following four points:

  1. A lack of demand and/or useful applications
  2. Ever dragging out litigation
  3. Perceived unfulfilled promises
  4. A rabbit hole deep conspiracy to suppress “real Bitcoin”

The truth always comes out in time. As time moves forward, certain past events, behaviors of individuals and statements start to make sense. For example, as a skeptic that the upcoming Hodlonaut trial would have any material impact on attention to, or adoption of BSV I am now reconsidering that skepticism.

Panicky behavior is observed by Granath and his supporters online, such as begging for money last minute, doubling down on tired false narratives and an uptick in social engineering. Previous Satoshi Nakamoto claimants have come and gone like the wind but none have remained and endured the amount of supposed necessary disproof that Craig Wright has. If Craig Wright was lying about being Satoshi, then why is he not treated with the same amount of very little skepticism as those after him?

The rallying around a formerly anonymous cyberbully Hodlonaut aka Magnus Granath is very telling where the priorities of the BTC community lie. The public must be convinced that Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto and a liar and fraud for as long as possible. If Wright is such a fraud and easily debunked, why is it “difficult to overstate how important this is to Bitcoin”?

The lawsuit against Granath was filed in 2019 and three years later we are finally starting to see the impact. Points 2 and 3 above lead one to believe 4 is possible. While many are frustrated with the length of time, timing the market is impossible. The lawsuits are tiring and expensive but are viewed as necessary actions by those that argue its necessity due to the alleged infringement of rights in the first place.

The victory in the Wright v. McCormack case seemed to be effectively damage controlled by the media due to the focus on the paltry, headlining £1 award by the judge. However, with the acts of desperation seen by Wright’s opponents before this trial even starts, one must question what are they afraid of?

Combining these observations with the low morale and lack of expectations internally within the BSV community we must question if the price is close to a bottom. The BSV price has only significantly moved in the past on Craig Wright’s actions. Is this time different?

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