07-29-2025 
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Optics matter in geopolitics, and when the president of the driving engine in the BRICS alliance is missing from a key summit in Brazil, it speaks volumes.
When China announced that Premier Li Qiang would attend the Rio BRICS Summit in place of Xi Jinping, speculation exploded. I’ve read opinion pieces claiming there has been an internal coup, that the move signals China’s confidence in its ability to run BRICS from behind the scenes, or that China is facing domestic issues more severe than it lets on.
Given China’s opaque nature, it’s unlikely we’ll get a straight answer anytime soon. Instead, let us look at what the move may mean from the perspective of China’s long-term goals, the digital yuan, and de-dollarization.
The silent treatment—is Xi sending BRICS a message?
When it comes to China, what’s not said matters just as much as what is. Macro investor Ray Dalio characterized the Chinese government’s behavior as that of a “strict parent,” saying:
“As a top-down country … they behave like a strict parent, and they go through that. That is their approach, we have our approach.” – Ray Dalio
China has been clear about its goals: multipolarity and a global rebalancing of power, de-dollarization and financial sovereignty, reform of global governance, securing energy supplies and access to strategic resources, and promoting Chinese tech and infrastructure standards.
Given the lack of meaningful progress toward de-dollarization within the bloc and the jitteriness of members as the United States counters China’s moves and issues ultimatums, Xi’s absence in Rio could be interpreted as quiet displeasure.
Of course, China must walk the diplomatic tightrope like everyone else. It can’t afford to disengage from BRICS or alienate its members, which would only hurt its long-term goals. However, it can signal frustration and subtly pressure members to move forward with the agenda.
De-dollarization and the BRICS currency—what is the goal?
At the last annual BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russian President Vladimir Putin called a BRICS currency “premature.” However, that doesn’t mean it’s off the table, and it doesn’t mean the alliance will fold and continue to use the USD indefinitely.
At the Kazan Summit, member states agreed to use national currencies in internal trade. This would mean that BRICS phases out the USD and Western payment systems, such as SWIFT, in trade within the bloc. Essentially, this would cut the USD out of meaningful use in countries worth an estimated 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, and nations containing over half the world’s population would slowly cease to use the USD as a reserve currency.
The effects on the USD and interest rates on U.S. debt would be measurable. I’ve previously written about how there’s no realistic alternative to the USD in the short term, but China is playing the long game. Undermining U.S. dominance in the Global South may take decades, but as the old saying goes, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.All the pieces are in place already; China’s digital yuan is live, its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may have been scaled back, but it still has agreements with 150 countries, and loans from the BRICS New Development Bank are increasingly seen as favorable to terms offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.
Putting all of this together, the picture becomes clear: China sees itself as the future leader of Asia-Pacific at a minimum, and its currency, payment rails, banks, and institutions are important tools in achieving that goal.
Uncle Sam isn’t happy, and he’s making that clear
Geopolitics is a cut-throat game of thrones, and naturally, when the current king senses a threat, he responds.
Since the days when America could rely on unrivaled power, Hollywood propaganda, and global willingness to commit to democracy and liberty are long gone, the U.S. has increasingly resorted to overt pressure tactics. The re-election of Donald Trump made it clear that the status quo is over, and Uncle Sam intends to renegotiate every deal, including trade deals with allies, and it doesn’t mind using a heavy hand to further its interests.
Under Trump’s watch, sanctions, tariffs, and talks are on one day and off the next. Anyone seen as friendly with China is a potential target of America’s ire. The 47th President has made it clear that any attempts to move off the dollar standard will never be allowed. During the Rio summit, he announced an additional 10% tariffs on BRICS-aligned nations.
Naturally, this has slowed China’s progress toward its goals. There has been no serious movement toward de-dollarization or the uptake of the digital yuan. India has signed deals with the U.S. and the United Kingdom and resumed talks with the European Union and Israel. Meanwhile, China’s economy is showing some signs of stress.
With all of this, it’s little surprise that China is unhappy with its fellow BRICS members, and thus, it shouldn’t be surprising that Xi has sent a silent message with his absence at the Rio summit.
In the great game of global power, not every ultimatum needs to be spoken. Sometimes, the most powerful messages are delivered in silence.
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