Quantum-proofing blockchains: How much of a problem is it?

Advances in quantum computing may (or may not) present a threat to existing encryption systems used worldwide. Even if the threat isn’t immediate, uncertainty surrounding the issue could lead to fearmongering, or damage trust in emerging digital commerce networks like blockchain.

Various groups around the world are working to create “quantum-proof” techniques that would keep information secure, even if computers millions of times more powerful than today’s models suddenly appeared. A team of researchers in China recently announced a solution called EQAS, or efficient quantum-resistant authentication storage, aimed specifically at protecting blockchain-stored data records.

Quantum computing’s threat to cryptography is more theoretical than imminent. Even today’s cutting-edge “quantum chips” like Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Willow, China’s Zuchongzhi-3, and IBM’s (NASDAQ: IBM) Quantum Heron are experimental prototypes with just over a hundred “qubits” and lingering stability/accuracy issues. Some estimates say it will be decades (or longer) before any quantum computer has a realistic chance of breaking existing encryption methods, even if research continues at its current pace. Others claim the threat is more media hype than real, or that quantum-resistant methods will appear before practical quantum computers themselves do.

In any case, research into quantum resistance is a necessary vigilance against any surprise breakthroughs that may occur, and EQAS is one example. Organizations like the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) are also working on “post-quantum cryptography” (PQC) standards, such as lattice-based CRYSTALS (“Kyber” and “Dilithium”).

The EQAS research team, led by Wu Tong, included representatives from the University of Science and Technology in Beijing, the Beijing Institute of Technology, and Guilin University of Electronic Technology. EQAS is a modular system that separates data storage from verification, and claims added efficiencies that can complete authentication and storage tasks in about 40 seconds.

Rather than using math-based encryption, EQAS uses a signature tool called SPHINCS+ with quantum-resistant hash functions, keeping signatures small and quicker to verify.

Is quantum computing a real threat to Bitcoin? Probably not

Although digital encryption keeps information secure across the entire global government/enterprise/individual spectrum, mainstream media reports on quantum computing frequently invoke Bitcoin’s name. This could be due to the public associating words like “crypto” and “encryption” more directly with blockchain than with other systems. Fears that quantum machines could “break Bitcoin” or cause holders to suddenly “lose all their coins” are useful for generating views.

“Quantum computing is a great way to scare people into clicking an article, but the threat is almost entirely fake,” said CoinGeek’s Bitcoin Historian Kurt Wuckert, Jr.

Bitcoin itself could adapt quickly to any changes with software upgrades, though it would probably require a hard or soft fork for miners, and ordinary users would need to move coins out of old addresses.

“The funny thing is that Bitcoin’s cryptography can be swapped for quantum-resistant cryptography in an afternoon. The threat is essentially zero,” Wuckert added.

If we’re concerned at all, it should be over systems like military communications, traditional financial networks, and other widely used interdependent systems, not simple Bitcoin wallets. Bitcoin would be (relatively) easier to defend. And again, all this is IF quantum computers ever become practical.

China and others are developing their own protections

Developments like EQAS also have geopolitical significance, as part of China’s moves to create cryptographic standards independent of Western (mostly the United States) efforts. Similar to the fragmentation we’re beginning to see in global economics and finance, they stem from concerns that international standards and systems may be weaponized to disadvantage “non-allied” nations.

The freezing of Russian central bank assets and disconnecting entire countries’ banks from SWIFT are examples of this in the financial world. The BRICS nations and their partners are busy developing their own financial messaging systems to mitigate the risk of this becoming a larger trend.

In technology, there are fears that artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and cryptographic algorithms could be similarly tweaked, or even backdoored at the base level, to gain an advantage. In the decades past, the U.S. government imposed export controls on cryptographic techniques, which were challenged as personal computer usage grew. In the 21st century, distrust between geopolitical blocs is growing, and new advances in all these fields may be kept classified for strategic advantage.

Whether quantum computing developments represent a real or impending threat to encryption, the emergence of separate research tracks in different regions is significant. For now, the better advice is not to worry but to stay aware of what’s happening.

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