‘Crypto voters’ don’t exist, deep-pocketed campaigners do

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Certain digital asset operators continue to peddle the myth that ‘crypto voters’ will prove the difference in America’s November elections, but it’s ‘crypto cash’ that’s doing all the heavy lifting.

On October 7, the New Yorker published a long-form article titled Silicon Valley, the New Lobbying Monster, which details the lavish campaign spending in the current United States election cycle by some crypto operators and the venture capitalists (VCs) backing them.

The Fairshake super political action committee, along with the affiliated Defend American Jobs (pro-Republican) and Protect Progress (pro-Democrat) PACs, are on track to dump nearly $200 million into this year’s campaigns. These PACs are primarily funded by the Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) exchange, Ripple Labs and the individuals behind the tech-focused Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) VC fund, with assistance from a host of lesser crypto luminaries.

These same groups have been relentlessly promoting polls they claim show the key role that alleged ‘crypto voters’ will play in the swing states that will decide who sits in the White House come January. But a closer look at these numbers shows no sign that voters who happen to hold digital assets are making decisions based solely on who might pump their bags harder.

This explains why the crypto-funded ads don’t so much as mention crypto, let alone any candidate’s stance on same. The ads either praise or criticize candidates based on issues that actually do matter to voters. Clearly, even crypto operators understand that saying a candidate is pro-crypto may actually hurt that candidate, while painting them as anti-crypto might tip the balance in that candidate’s favor.

In a revealing exchange, the New Yorker quotes former Democratic strategist Chris Lehane—who joined Coinbase’s board of directors in July—telling Coinbase principals that the industry needed to “demonstrate there’s a crypto voter” who will “vote to protect it.” When a Coinbase staffer expressed doubt regarding the existence of a ‘crypto voter,’ Lehane replied “[t]hen we’re going to make one.”

The mercenary purpose behind the unprecedented campaign funding effort is further exposed in a quote from one of the New Yorker’s sources. This source—an unspecified former Coinbase staffer—discussed Fairshake’s role in denying the bid by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) to win the nomination for the Senate seat left vacant by last year’s death of Dianne Feinstein.

The article says Fairshake’s “intent wasn’t simply to damage [Porter]. The group’s backers didn’t care all that much about Porter. Rather, the person familiar with Fairshake said, the goal of the attack campaign was to terrify other politicians.” This source is then quoted saying: “It’s a simple message. If you are pro-crypto, we will help you, and if you are anti we will tear you apart.”

Bury a friend

Other critics of Fairshake’s tactics include Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), a candidate for the Senate seat currently held by the retiring Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). Despite Rogers being a staunch ally of all things blockchain, Fairshake is funneling $3 million to support Rogers’ opponent, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), whose crypto support pales in comparison to Rogers’ more full-throated advocacy.

Stand with Crypto (SwC), the Coinbase-funded ‘grassroots’ advocacy group, gives Slotkin an ‘A’ rating, indicating that she ‘strongly supports crypto.’ And yet, Slotkin’s SwC page shows four ‘somewhat pro-crypto’ comments, two ‘neutral’ comments and one ‘very anti-crypto’ comment. By contrast, Rogers’ page shows two ‘very pro-crypto’ comments, one ‘somewhat pro-crypto’ comment and a comment still ‘pending analysis.’

Rogers told Decrypt that there was “nobody more confused than me” regarding Fairshake’s support of his opponent given their respective crypto bona fides. Rogers called Fairshake’s move “not very strategic” but also claimed Fairshake’s move was less about Slotkin’s views and more about attempting to show that the group was unaffiliated with any one party (which, to be fair, sounds kinda strategic).

This summer, some GOP stalwarts expressed annoyance at Fairshake’s bid to straddle the political fence despite Republicans’ more vocal crypto support. As one strategist told NBC News, “Coinbase and Fairshake are attempting to become toxic to Republicans.” A crypto industry figure added that it’s “a pretty bad omen for the industry, that people are wondering why our main trade association is pointing its arsenal at our friends.”

Strategic insincerity

In another apparent attempt to at least feign a neutral, open-minded view, venture capitalist Ben Horowitz recently sent an email to a16z staff indicating his intention to make “a significant donation to entities who support the [Kamala] Harris [Tim] Walz campaign.” The email, which was first reported by Axios, was later made public by Horowitz.

Horowitz said he and his wife had known Harris for over a decade, and she “has been a great friend to both of us” as well as “a friend to [a16z] in our early days.” Horowitz said he’d had “several conversations” with Harris and her team “on their likely tech policies.”

Since Harris’s detailed tech policies have yet to be expressed publicly, Horowitz said “the firm will not be updating its position in that regard.” But Horowitz is “very hopeful that the Harris Administration will be much better” than Biden’s allegedly “exceptionally destructive” stance toward “Crypto/Blockchain and AI.”

Horowitz’s hopes may have been dashed on October 8, when Harris appeared on The View and was quizzed about what she might have done differently had she been the top dog at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. over the last four years. Harris’s response: “There is not a thing that comes to mind,” adding that she’d been “a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.”

And yet, Harris previously set crypto fans’ hearts fluttering merely by uttering some utterly anodyne comments regarding her support for “innovative technologies like AI and digital assets” and wanting the U.S. to remain “dominant” in tech sectors including “blockchain.” So who knows?

In mid-July, Horowitz and his partner, Marc Andreessen, wholeheartedly endorsed Trump and promised to make “large donations” to Trump-supported PACs. The pair celebrated Trump’s “flat-out blanket endorsement of the entire [crypto] space” while slamming Biden’s plan to impose new capital gains taxes on billionaires like (checks notes) Andreessen and Horowitz.

The apparent softening of Horowitz’s heart toward Harris came less than a month after Trump crapped the bed in his one and only debate with the current VP. It’s unclear how much that debacle—and the resulting drag on Trump’s poll numbers—may have played into Horowitz’s about-face. Regardless, Horowitz seems to have suddenly felt the need to project a little ‘strategic ambiguity’ regarding a16z’s political support.

Flip a (meme)coin

Some observers believe the so-called ‘Trump trade,’ aka the token price-boosting benefit of putting Donald back in the White House, has lost its mojo after Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in late July.

A recent poll sponsored by the Ethereum-focused blockchain software outfit Consensys offered the usual pablum regarding the might and majesty of the average ‘crypto voter’ but also showed little support for the idea that one party is better than the other when it comes to digital assets.

Some of the less-partisan members of the digital asset community now believe that, regardless of who’s in the Oval Office, Congress will successfully advance legislative efforts when they reconvene in January (or possibly sooner, as the post-election lame-duck session is notorious for last-minute passage of controversial bills).

You Musk be joking

While surveys continue to show both candidates within the margin of error for claiming victory, the denizens of ‘Crypto Twitter’ point to Trump’s lead on the crypto-friendly PolyMarket prediction site as a better barometer of where things really stand. This includes X/Twitter boss Elon Musk, who has formally endorsed Trump and is throwing his not-inconsiderable financial weight behind that endorsement.

Musk recently celebrated Trump’s favorable PolyMarket odds by claiming that prediction markets are “[m]ore accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” But as skeptics have pointed out, there are some deep-pocketed bettors betting on Trump that may or may not be Musk wearing a funny-moustache-and-glasses combo.

PolyMarket watchers have noticed that a number of accounts appear to bet on nothing but Trump-related markets. The irrationality of some of these wagers—like Trump winning the popular vote, something he failed to do in his two previous tallies—suggest efforts to influence the narrative that Trump is winning regardless of the reality.

Unlike the U.S.-approved Kalshi prediction market, PolyMarket is open to international bettors. PolyMarket also doesn’t impose any limits on how much bettors can spend on any individual market, opening up possible avenues of manipulation.

Critics of this theory point out that intentionally backing a loser would cost the bettor their stake. But a couple million bucks means a lot more to most individuals than it does to a nation-state, particularly nation-states that stand to gain politically from another Trump administration.

Also recall that Twitter/X now carries a valuation under $10 billion, less than one-quarter of what Musk paid for it just two years ago. That’s a pretty bad deal unless you’re the richest (and possibly most insecure) man on earth who prizes attention and influence far more than cash. Suddenly, spending a couple of million juicing an election market seems like a cheap date. (And Musk is openly musing about how much he’s f*ucked if Harris wins.)

To be clear, there’s no hard evidence of Musk manipulating these markets. But since Musk has spent the last two weeks blithely retweeting the most batshit insane disinformation about disaster recovery efforts in the southeastern U.S., we figure he should be able to take what he dishes out.

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