This is an excerpt from John Pitts’ latest blog post, The winner of 2022: BitCoin Satoshi Vision [$BSV]. Read the full piece on Medium.
Once in a while, it’s important to call your shot like Babe Ruth did—twice. My family and friends know that it’s rare, but sometimes I call my year. “This one is gonna be my year,” I’ll say. When you’ve been in the prediction business as long as I have, sometimes you just FEEL that all the information you’ve gathered is correct, and you’ve reached a point where you’re seeing and sniffing the evidence of things going your way. It’s not just a random feeling, there’s confidence and advantages behind it. It’s not every year this happens, but when you’re well-prepared for a year because you’ve been working your ass off and realize you’re going to get paid soon—that’s the “feeling.”
Maybe the Babe knew the pitcher very well, and as he approached the plate, he realized he had the wind going to right field, and he already knew he was hot, to begin with. Maybe he even pre-arranged for the pitcher to throw him a meatball to please a dying kid in a hospital? What matters when calling your shot is that you’re prepared and “have it wired.” This is the expression surfers use when knowing a particular break SO well. He hops up on every wave, perfectly-timed as if he was one with Poseidon—while others struggle to guess what the ocean and other surfers are going to do. I’ve been immersed in the Bitcoin SV ecosystem for three years now. It’s time. It’s 2022. I’m calling my shot.
This is BSV’s year, 2022. If you want to avoid the pitfalls of our current bubblicious over-priced stock market and even frothier “cryptos,” yet still invest in something with upside, focus your research gaze toward BSV-land like the Babe eye-balled, the right-field bleachers.
Calling your shot like the George Herman “Babe” Ruth
What I am doing, in short: Going “ALL-IN” on BSV
- Maximize BSV ownership before January 1, in order to reserve satoshi “seats” on the Bitcoin SV train. If you understood how SLictionary’s SLicDef tokens worked, and realized that eventually other BSV applications will need similar satoshi-laden substrates, you’d be quite bullish on BSV’s long term prospects. You’d secure some “space” in advance, in satoshis, in preparation for using them for business at discounted prices. Read up on how Southwest Airlines’s Gary Kelly “tonned-it” by buying jet fuel futures when oil dropped to $11 per barrel in the late 1990s—which vaunted him to take over as CEO from venerable Herb Kelleher
- Invest an equal amount in TAAL Distributed Information Technologies Inc. (CSE:TAAL | FWB:9SQ1 | OTC: TAALF), another token with future potential cash flows (“stock dividends”) like SLicDef tokens.
- Invest in the most promising BSV-only startups via Pi Zero One Ventures.
- Invest in (myself) Structured Linguistics, Pi Zero One Ventures, Diamonds in the Rough Podcast on Streamanity
- Invest in words! Lookup a word in SLictionary, and if you arrive at the “Lucky You” page, put up a bounty > $2.00 in order to receive back definition tokens written by competing Word$miths. The higher amount you bounty the word, the more definitions and higher quality you’ll get!
- Hold the vast remainder in cash until more BSV startup opportunities show themselves. Babe Ruth & Ted Williams were famous for waiting for “his pitch”—the one they were most capable of knocking outta the park.
This actually isn’t the first time I’ve recommended Bitcoin Satoshi Vision. If you read my very first article on Medium, circa April 19, 2019, it has what’s known as an “Easter Egg.” At the end of an article which explained how to make long-term life-changing bets on great assets with small amounts of capital, it mentions examples of past stock picks which worked out for me, current stock picks I was in at the time (like $SNAP at $10–11 per share), and FUTURE picks which I had already researched but didn’t have time to write-up formally—like I did on Seeking Alpha regarding Snapchat.
Why Bitcoin SV?
Quite simply, Bitcoin SV is the original Bitcoin circa 2009 with all the OP_CODEs available since February 2020. The OP_CODES are important because that’s what will allow developers and businessmen to MAKE things out of the BSV commodity. BSV is the computational commodity, just like containers were standardized in 1956 by Malcolm McLean to clean up the messy complicated shipping industry over the next couple decades. Bitcoin as a computational commodity was my “ephiphany” on the weekend of Easter 2019. I was able to explain it more fully later in “What is Money?” and “the wampum story,” why any asset vying to become money must first be an asset-backed by something. In the case of wampum, the money was backed by hard labor, and the same is true of gold. Whereas BSV is backed by computational work, namely, the storage of valuable information, computational calculation, and maintenance of a robust timechain/ledger. The big difference in Bitcoin vs most other commodities, was the fact that Bitcoin’s supply limitation is well known at 2.1 quadrillion satoshis. This limitation makes Bitcoin a rare deflationary asset class like island-city real estate—which I wrote about in “What is Bitcoin?” when I understood Bitcoin even better than when I wrote: “What is Money?”:
Volatility is no fun for the cowboy, but there’s no “ALPHA” glory without it — unfortunately. You must be able to take the pains to make the gains.
Beware! The volatility “bronco ride”
Commodities, even deflationary ones, are tough purchases, as they have a tendency for massive volatility. Since the April 19, 2019 “Easter eggs,” Bitcoin Satoshi Vision has been no exception:
~$50 in April 2019 thanks to delistings from most of the well-known (especially the Digital Capital Group-owned “cryptocurrency” exchanges)
> $200 when CSW began to first willingly and publicly admit he was Satoshi Nakamoto on stage at the Toronto conference to Jimmy Nguyen.
< $80 in late 2019 as it appeared Judge Reinhardt wanted to summary-judge against Craig Wright—denying CSW the opportunity to testify in his own defense. (overturned in January 2020 by Judge Bloom after further evidence was presented by CSW, as he promised to the court—aka “bonded courier”)
> $400 on January 14, 2020, as news broke that CSW had presented his decrypted files regarding his previously-ghosty Tulip Trusts.
This type of $100 to $400 and back volatility happened all over again in 2021 as well, with a high at $492 and a roughly $100 low 2 days before the first of several double-spend attacks in June —> August 2021.
Is Bitcoin SV a lemon?
The downside in a commodity is expressed in the old adage, “when life hands you lemons, make lemonade.” As BSV goes down in price, it becomes cheaper to use! WordBarons, for example, in the application SLictionary.com can gain bigger token substrates for their definitions, thereby lessening the risk of purchasing definitions. “SLicDef” STAS tokens take up lots of satoshi space, which leaves less room for “empty” Bitcoin—known commonly as money.
When commodities get cheap; innovative people think of new utilities for the asset
WordBaron example: Let’s say you put up the word “CONFERENCE” as a Word Bounty for $100 and get 20 definitions written for you by Word$miths trying to win the fat bounty reward. 10% of the bounty goes towards “substrating” those 20 definitions; aka, we don’t use just one satoshi or stupidly harm BSV by using no satoshis (ZSTs). $10 divided by 20 definitions is $0.50 per definition! When you look at your shiny new definition-NFTs in your SLictionary wallet, you’ll see that each will have cash-flow earnings metrics you can use to decide which definitions are worth more than 50¢ and should be kept as micro-investments, and which will not get you “lit” cash flows and should be redeemed for 50 cents. It becomes a simple economic decision. But even MORE intriguing, the definitions you keep in the early days of BSV = $120–130, because most of the definition cash-flows will grow big in future years, might rise in redemption value as BSV itself goes up in price. If BSV was $8,500 (my highest 24 month target price, by the way) in 2024, your $0.50 original-cost SLicDef tokens would be redeemable for $35 each, or $700 in total. Now you’d take a MUCH closer look at which of your 20 SLicDefs is worth keeping for the dictionary-earning cash flow likes.
If SLictionary doesn’t have the word; it’s an opportunity not a disappointment
Obviously, the lower BSV is in price, the more interested you should become in transferring your US dollar cash-trash into BSV SLicDef tokens. Make bitcoinade!
Since Bitcoin has computational utility, like in WordBaron example above, low prices cure themselves. Try experimenting with SLictionary to buy words thru offering high-dollar Word Bounties to gain NFT, and you’ll surely gain never-been-done-before understanding of Bitcoin’s limited downside. Other digital currencies don’t have this because they don’t even put their NFTs on the main chain—much less ON-COIN like SLicDefs!
Too many lemons make for low lemonade costs. This inspires lemonade makers to make cheap lemonade and sell it dear on a hot summer day. Lemonade manufacturing not only preserves the lemons’ shelf lives but also takes lemons out of circulation, which thereby raises prices!
Bitcoin the commodity
If there is no computational use of a digital currency—because it can neither store data nor compute quickly, cheaply, and securely—then there is no self-correcting price mechanism to “turn lemons into lemonade.” In that case (i.e., all the cryptocurrency securities) the price can go right to zero or even negative, as West Texas crude oil did in 2020.
At scale, Bitcoin’s advantages are cheap transactions & data storage, a secure computational & monetary repository, and fast network speeds. In short, Bitcoin becomes an advantaged competitor to Amazon Web Services—which has >$2 trillion market cap since AWS has been more than 100% of AMZN’s EPS—while attaching easy-to-use monetary values to the commoditized computational assets. Bitcoin is “Bit & Coin” as Jimmy Nguyen likes to say.
Cheap transactions at 1/100th of a penny (and lowering as the network scales) allows microtransactions to occur. Many don’t grasp it yet due to “DeFi mania,” but microtransactions are a ginormous undertapped industry. A Snapchat skin might only cost 1/10th of a penny per use—negligible to the user at the end of the year—maybe 20 cents for a year’s worth? But $0.20 times a billion people would be $200 billion in revenues, quite a nice software business and wonderful for the artist no matter the percentage cut she takes.
Fast transactions allow for things like speedier games and lower video-call latencies. You don’t want a worldwide Fortnite tournament crashing a player’s chance to win the $1 million prize, just like you don’t want splotchy video communications in the age of Zoom. Speed comes from Nodes losing money if they fail to transmit blocks fast enough to the other large nodes in the BSV network—known as collisions or orphaning-events. Thus, it will PAY for Nodes to invest in dark fiber from one Node to other large Nodes on the other side of the world. Right now, Verizon and Vodafone don’t lose money every day if their network is slow, but Bitcoin conducts a championship every 10 minutes, and losers are made of Nodes who don’t transmit their blocks fast enough!
If she doesn’t build on top of that yellow block before she recieves a block from his rival, this lil’ guy’s gonna have to sell his coolio pants to pay his electric bill
Secure transactions come from investment in the network by the Nodes. When a Node has invested billions in their network, you can bet they won’t want to lose data or money, or else their investment goes kaput.
Broad transactions over the world’s one public blockchain network, using the commoditized transaction protocol, allows EVERY piece of data to be standardized—just like occurred in the shipping industry after the 1956 standardization of the container. The Bitcoin SV protocol is doing the same thing now but with computation.
Bitcoin is indeed a cheap, fast, one-chain, single-layer computer optimized by economic incentives. An elegant brilliant design.
These are the qualities which will make Bitcoin more attractive than the internet itself over the next 20 years.
The REAL reason to invest in BSV is fundamentals. Many apps will take advantage of BSV’s low transactional pricing, especially as Node-miners like TAAL cook up more elaborate pricing schemes which discount data storage and bifurcate speedy transactions from slower ones that don’t need as much attention. Plus, the addition of high-volume transactions apps like EHR Data in 2022 and high on-coin and on-chain data apps like SLictionary, MetaID, Twetch, and new applications* will add to commodity usage while stealing from monetary usage; thus, the price goes up.
It’s important to remember that *new applications can spring up faster in 2022 than ever before. Early BSV companies, like those listed above, have pioneered and trailblazed Bitcoin SV infrastructure, which allows faster development times for those who come later. For instance, in STAS tokens, I can assure you SLictionary has blazed a trail for all who follow, free of charge. Other early companies have done the same—so respect your elders even if you’re beating-up on them! Bitcoin is such a strong invention. There will be applications from the new BSV startups in 2022 for which we can only dream.
How to make money and contribute to SLictionary
I will make some timely New Year’s predictions now for 2022:
Transactions will grow 10-fold from 5–20 txns/second to 50 to 200.
Block sizes will grow 20-fold from 50–100 MB at the end of 2021 to 1–2GB consistently by the end of 2022. This may sound great to Nodes, but the pricing will come DOWN commensurate with the block size growth as Nodes wisely separate data fees from validation fees. [12: a topic for a future article]
Price: I expect, but certainly don’t guarantee, BSV will rise to 4-digits per Bitcoin inside the confines of 2022. (not financial advice)
The ugly bridesmaids’ dresses effect:
A smart bride swathes her bridesmaids in terrible dresses to make the bride look all that better, right? Fortunately for BSV, this is quite easy. Solana has failed three times in as many months because POS coins don’t have a proper incentive system to scale well. At times of peak loading, POS Nodes hope the OTHER stakeholder/node wins the block! Whereas in BSV, the Node who gets the big heavy blocks is the Node making all the money, so BSV Nodes plan for peak loading as an opportunity—not a cost. Ethereum began life by failing and has never given up that motif. BTC is proof of work, but with all the things that make Bitcoin special are either disabled or changed for the worse. In 2022 this will become even more apparent, not so much because the digital currencies get worse, but because BSV gets stronger and distances itself from the pack.
The market can give extra weight in 2022 to the one who isn’t hampered.
It’s one thing for BSV to be NEAR Ethereum’s transaction count per second, but quite another if BSV grows 10x and makes Ethereum’s transaction count pale by comparison. There’s only so long the market will ignore that performance.
Don’t forget, BTC and Ethereum likely get > 90% of their transactions from trading pairs; whereas, BSV is the opposite and likely gets the vast majority of its transactions from its actual apps. Someday BSV will also get the trading-pair “juice” from apps like Fabriik and tdxp.
The Satoshi Effect:
I’ll keep it short here. While no one seems to care that Craig Wright is Satoshi because the $3 trillion in cryptoCrap speculators all believe that marketing and continued improvements will win vs. better technology led by Satoshi himself, they WILL care about a man with $30 or $70 billion in BTC to sell which is most likely converted to BSV, when not U.S. dollars. Just because he is giving the majority of his BTC to charity doesn’t mean a charitable trust won’t invest the BTC proceeds into BSV-related things such as the coins themselves and provider start-ups using BSV in innovative ways for the charities. Even by Tether and USDC’s standards, tens of billions is a lot!
With leverage and Tether-style money printing available to Wild Wild West exchanges who cower away from regulated-market jurisdictions, even CSW’s Bitcoins may not be enough to overcome naked shorting, so this isn’t as strong as a catalyst as it COULD be if all markets worldwide were regulated like equities markets. We’ll get to that later.
The good thing about markets is they are anticipatory. Even tho the fundamentals of the Bitcoin commodity can allow Bitcoin to go quite low—even single-digit dollars per Bitcoin—the market doesn’t normally let prices get too outlandish if it can easily see the future outcome. Wall Street calls this “multiples,” meaning earnings multiples or revenue multiples. Bitcoin is so young with so much growing ahead of it, that in these early innings it will have large multiples vs the fundamentals. So even tho it COULD go to $9, it’ll more likely trade to a nadir 10x to 100x that number, and it has. Then there’s relative valuation…
“Cryptocurrencies” have stretched mama’s skirt. While no digital currency in today’s market is worth $69,000 x $21mm ($1.5 trillion), BTC has gone and reached that valuation anyway, with others not far behind. So the market understands there’s SOMETHING to this “blockchain” stuff. Just like PCLN and AMZN emerged out of the dotcom graveyard of thousands of failed internet stocks, so shall BSV rise from the dust of tens of thousands of failed digotal currency tokens. While BSV is NOT headed for the same heights BTC reached (sorry silly wabbits) this year, it can certainly achieve a fraction of that amount and rather quickly. $2,000 to $15,000 is reasonable to expect as BSV begins to shine. History has also shown that great companies can go up over 10x in short-burst periods of time too, so there’s a historical precedent for such a rise quickly. But if there’s a “flippening” ahead, it’ll combine a large drop in the price of BTC along with BSV rising in price.
10x quickly (and more) happens inside 24 months more often than you think, but you have to be whale hunting (see first Medium article)
It’s my best guess that BSV “sees its day in the sun” in 2022 and reaches a nice return, and then as the digital currency industry rots to the ground, BSV will pull back as well—just not as far. For instance, if BSV went to $12,000, less than 1/5th of the heights its half-wit twin achieved, and then dropped even 90% afterward, that would still be a price of $1,200, which is 10x higher than we are now! In the meantime, if you want odds like that, you have to be willing to stand firm on massive downside into low double-digit prices for the privilege of seeing a massive rise. Don’t believe it? I bought Snapchat at $13 in 2017, thinking I had caught the bottom within a dollar or two. Instead, I had to watch SNAP drop from $20 to $4 in 2018. That’s the bronco-ride price you pay to see $80 per share. In the long term, relative valuations don’t mean anything, and Bitcoin SV will price around its fundamentals—which are dependent on the value of information stored on-coins and the utility of the network for computations.
Tax-Loss Selling Tailwind:
Another part of calling your shot at the end of a year like 2021 is realizing that your favorite entity has been subject to tax-loss-selling headwind. That headwind becomes a massive tailwind as soon as the calendar year turns over—like magic. This doesn’t work for broken companies, but it sure works if you’ve got all the researched fundamentals correctly. Is BSV the best network? Yep. Is Craig Satoshi Nakamoto and the best leader for this technology? Yep. Do you have thousands of hours of research poured into the technology, software, design, and ecosystem to understand that the fundamentals are strong and getting stronger despite the price going down seemingly without end? Yep. So ride that angry bucking bronco with the confidence you’ll break him before he breaks you.
If you know you’ll outlast it, you’ve got a psychological winning advantage.
This last trip from $180 to $120 has been about tax-loss selling. Almost everyone who bought BSV in 2021 is sitting on a loss, and if they can wait 30 days to buy it back (cheaper, they hope!?), they can book the tax loss for 2021, lowering tax bill, and then buy BSV again legally. This is easier said than done, thanks to tax-loss-selling rules. If you sell in December, there’s a chance you will only be able to buy back BSV after it’s doubled or tripled. You miss a lot of the ride. If you sell too early vs. year-end, you risk having the Kleiman court case catalyst cause a runaway rise in the price. That didn’t happen, so this year’s tax-loss selling is likely occurring in December all the way thru December 31.
Unsuccessful Kleiman-bets selling:
Worse, all those people who hedged speculatively on BSV for the court case, “just in case,” were hosed. So they are selling short-term losses since the catalyst occurred and didn’t work out. Even MORE, selling pressure.
The risk in 2022 is that regulators move too slowly to quell the naked shorting, which likely suppresses BSV’s price since 2018. Digital currency exchanges have proven quite nimble in escaping the heavy hands of first-world regulators, and that may not change. This is where my “called shot” for Bitcoin SV in 2022 could go terribly wrong. Naked shorting is super powerful and should not be underestimated. The printing press can stay running longer than you can remain solvent, and the same is true for naked shorting presses.
As in Summer 2021, planned attacks can slow down BSV’s pace. There will be a full article on this topic later, so I’ll leave it as just a risk factor for now. These attacks may not be what they seem but may be entirely organized to sink the reputation of Bitcoin SV. If so, it has worked in 2021 and could work again in 2022.
Merry New Year
The Babe didn’t just call one shot, but two. That’s the idea. Try to set up every year to be “your year.” String winning years together. It’s hard, but if you can just ignore celebrating successes and work instead, you can possibly achieve it! Good Luck! In the meantime, let’s just call one year for BSV—2022. I expect it to be a doozy in more ways than one. Let’s all work thru it and exit 2022 with enough momentum to call 2023 a doubly-good year for Bitcoin (SV).
Thanks for reading; if you appreciate the article, please grease the next article by sending BSV & a note to $JOHNPITTS at HandCash or [email protected].
Read the rest of John Pitts’ piece, The winner of 2022: BitCoin Satoshi Vision [$BSV], on Medium.
New to Bitcoin? Check out CoinGeek’s Bitcoin for Beginners section, the ultimate resource guide to learn more about Bitcoin—as originally envisioned by Satoshi Nakamoto—and blockchain.